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Meteorological March Madness 2012

Draft - Last Update: 11 December 2012

Disclaimer: This draft is an evolving research assessment and not a final report. The analyses presented have not yet been peer reviewed and do not represent official positions of ESRL, NOAA, or DOC. A more technical and detailed analysis of the heat wave has been submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society for peer review. Comments are welcome. For more information, contact Dr. Martin Hoerling (

Additional Reading

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  • Dole, R, M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X. Quan, T. Xu, and D. Murray; 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett,, 38, L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582.
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  • Namias, J., 1982: Anatomy of Great Plains protracted heat waves (especially the 1980 U.S. summer drought). Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 824-838.
  • Otto, F., N. Massey, G. Oldenborgh, R. Jones, and M. Allem, 2012: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2011GL050422
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  • Screen, J., C. Deser, and I. Simmonds, 2012: Local and remote forcing of observed Arctic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. submitted.
  • Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., Allen, M. R., 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614.
  • Stott, P., M. Allen, N. Christidis, R. Dole, M. Hoerling, C. Huntingford, P. Pall, J. Perlwitz, D. Stone; 2012: Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Extreme Events, submitted.
  • Trenberth, T, G. Branstator and P. Arkin, 1988: Origins of the 1988 North American Drought. Science Vol. 242 1640-1645 doi: 10.1126/science.242.4886.1640
  • WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 - CMIP5.
  • van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2007), How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe?, Clim. Past, 3, 659-668.