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Preliminary Assessment of Climate Factors Contributing to the Extreme 2011 Tornadoes


Draft Assessment - Updated: 08-July-2011

Disclaimer: This draft is an evolving research assessment and not a final report. Comments are welcome. For further information, contact Dr. Martin Hoerling (martin.hoerling@noaa.gov)
Overview | El Niño/La Niña | Climate Change | Q & A | References

References


  1. NOAA, 2011: 2011 Tornado Information. Web link: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_tornado_information.html
  2. IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z.Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  3. CCSP, 2008: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S.#Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Thomas R. Karl, Gerald A. Meehl, Christopher D. Miller, Susan J. Hassol, Anne M. Waple, and William L. Murray (eds.)]. Department of Commerce, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Washington, D.C., USA, 164 pp
  4. Illinois State Climatologist Office, 2009: Tornado Trends in Illinois. Available on-line at http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/Climate_change/il-tornado.htm
  5. McCarthy, D., and J. Schaefer, 2003: Tornado trends over the Past Thirty Years. Available at : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/mccarthy/tor30yrs.pdf
  6. Brooks, H., C. Doswell III, and M. Kay 2003: Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 626-640.
  7. IPCC, 2009: Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthopogenic Climate Change. Report of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland 14-16 September, 8 pp. http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/meetings/EMs/IPCC_D&A_GoodPracticeGuidancePaper.pdf
  8. Brooks, H. E., J. W. Lee, and J. P. Craven, 2003: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos. Res., 67-68, 73-94.
  9. Hamill, T., and Co-Authors, 2005: An objective method for determining the probability of tornado occurrences based on analyzed wind shear and lifted indices. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., ES17-ES20.
  10. Trapp, R., N. Diffenbaugh, H. Brooks, M. Baldwin, E. Robinson, and J. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proceed. Nat. Acad. Sci, 104, 19719-19723.
  11. Cook, A. R., and J. T. Schaefer, 2008: The relation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter tornado outbreaks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3121-3137.
  12. Bove, M. C., 1998: Impacts of ENSO on United States tornadic activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 313-316.
  13. Mayes, B., and Co-Authors, 2008: Synoptic-scale convective environment climatology by ENSO phase in the North Central United States. 33rd NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop. Lincoln, NE 20-24 October 2008.
  14. Liebmann, B., and Co-authors, 2010: Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1485-1491.
  15. CCSP, 2008: Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Randall Dole (ed.)]. Department of Commerce, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Washington, D.C., USA, 136 pp
  16. Dole, R., and Co-authors, 2011; Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L06702, 5 pp., doi:10.1029/2010GL046582
  17. Del Genio, A. D., 2011; Will a Warmer World Be Stormier? earthzine, Avaiable at: http://www.earthzine.org/2011/04/16/will-a-warmer-world-be-stormier/

Overview | El Niño/La Niña | Climate Change | Q & A | References