ESRL/PSD Reforecast Analog probabilistic precipitation forecasts:
Lower Colorado River regional view
These forecast maps show the probability (percent chance) of the amount of precipitation falling during the forecast period exceeding a chosen threshold or lying in a chosen range. When forecasting for periods that are longer than a single day, for example the 6-10 day forecast, the threshold or range refers to the total amount of precipitation during that time period. Maps of the climatological probabilities are shown on the same page as the forecast probabilities for comparison. ESRL/PSD probabilistic precipitation forecast maps for the entire contiguous United States can be accessed here.
The spatial resolution of these forecasts is 5km (~3 miles). This resolution is achieved through downscaling from the 250 km (~150 miles) resolution ESRL/PSD Reforecast database using historical analogs from the NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis ) 32 km (~18 miles) gridded precipitation analyses, further refined using the 'mountain-mapper' technique.
Plots last updated: Wednesday, 25-Nov-2009 04:53:08 MST
Choosing "Get verification plots" will give you a map of Brier Skill Score and a Reliability Diagram for forecasts from 1979-2004 for the month, forecast lead time and threshold you have chosen.