ESRL/PSD Reforecast Analog probabilistic precipitation forecasts: Colorado
These forecast maps show the probability (percent chance) that the amount of total precipitation falling during the forecast period (i.e., 6-10 day forecast) exceeds a chosen threshold. Maps of the climatological probabilities are shown on the same page as the forecast probabilities for comparison. ESRL/PSD probabilistic precipitation forecast maps for the entire contiguous United States can be accessed here.
The spatial resolution of these forecasts is 5km (~3 miles). This resolution is achieved through downscaling from the 250 km (~150 miles) resolution ESRL/PSD Reforecast database to the 32km (~18 miles) resolution North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using a historical analog technique. The resolution is further enhanced with a 5km PRISM precipitation climatology.
Plots last updated: Saturday, 07-Nov-2009 05:09:19 MST
Choosing "Get verification plots" will give you a map of Brier Skill Score and a Reliability Diagram for forecasts from 1979-2004 for the month, forecast lead time and threshold you have chosen.