ESRL Global Systems Division

FSL hosts workshop on the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

Convective weather is the single most disruptive force affecting the operation of aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS). To help mitigate weather-induced disruptions, NAS stakeholders and participating atmospheric scientists have developed the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP), which is the cornerstone of the traffic flow management planning process. The Forecast Systems Laboratory hosted the Weather Applications Workgroup Meeting May 2 - 4, 2005 to discuss recommended changes to the CCFP for 2006. Those in attendance represented the Federal Aviation Administration, private industry, and weather research laboratories, such as FSL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and MIT Lincoln Laboratory.

The Weather Applications team works to identify, develop, implement, and improve traffic flow management procedures and strategies using information gained from weather products, such as the CCFP. This technology, developed specifically for use in the strategic planning and management of air traffic, provides 2-, 4-, and 6-hour graphical forecasts of convection. This weather product was tested in 1999 and expanded to full operation in 2000. The collaborators are working to enhance CCFP to incrementally improve the detection and forecasting of hazardous weather, integrate common weather information into decision support systems, and mitigate the impacts of weather through improved collaborative development, distribution, display, training, and application of weather information.

The group discussed the evolution of the CCFP to a probabilistic forecast and its application to strategic decision-making procedures, and verification and evaluation of the CCFP forecast from both producer and user perspectives. In addition, briefings were presented on a variety of forecast efforts that are underway over terminal environments. A reception hosted by NCAR followed the meeting.

To complement the current 2005 forecast season for the CCFP, modified forecast graphics provide information that is more intuitive and easier for users to interpret. The CCFP graphics can be viewed from the National Weather Service Aviation Weather Center Website, and verification information can be obtained from the FSL Real-Time Verification System.

Contact information
Name: Jennifer Mahoney
Tel: 303-497-6514