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Weather Forecasts

Daily Weather Summary

July 3, 1999:

Surface high pressure starting to take over. With the air a little drier over Tennessee, expect mostly sunny skies with scattered Cu clouds. A small chance of an isolated thundershower this afternoon, given the fact that a weak surface thermal boundary stretches to our SE, caused by morning cloud/clear line. High: 93 Low: 72 Mixing Hgt. 2000 m MSL. 850 mb winds becoming light out of the SSE this afternoon, around 10 kts.

Tomorrow's Forecast

July 4, 1999:

Surface ridge continues, with mostly sunny skies and only isolated afternoon showers at most. 850 mb winds very light, generally out of the south. High: 94 Low: 72

Day after Tomorrow Forecast

July 5, 1999:

Pretty much the same as Sunday. High: 95 Low: 73

Outlook

High pressure continues during the period from Tuesday through Thursday, so expect mostly sunny skies to continue with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs: 92 to 97. Lows: 72 to 76. MRF seems to try to develop a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, then brings the tropical moisture into Tennessee by late Friday and next weekend. Too far out to worry about this, since likelihood that MRF is actually correct on this is very low.

Profiler Plume Depiction

The following shows a depiction of plume locations as predicted by the profiler winds assimilated into a one-dimensional boundary layer model. The top image shows particle positions as of the previous evening. The lower image shows particle positions as of the following morning for particles released beginning the previous noon.

Forecast Plumes

The following gives a depiction of plume locations using a Lagranagian Particle Model coupled to the Regional Spectral Model. The RSM is run daily in a forecast mode at TVA Muscle Shoals, Alabama.

Plume based on 00z initial fields (mpg file optimized for QuickTime)

Plume based on 12z initial fields (mpg file optimized for QuickTime)

ARL Hysplit Trajectories

Nashville Soundings