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Weather Forecasts

Daily Weather Summary

June 23, 1999:

Weather pattern becoming very active in TN. Strong 500 mb shortwave digging into MS River Valley. Ahead of this, surface pressure falling over the Southeastern US, and winds increasing out of the south. Expect SSWly winds this afternoon, around 20-25 kts at 850 mb. With lots of moisture and moderate instability, coupled with upward motion due to approaching shortwave, expect rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to overspread the area this afternoon. High: 84 Low: 70. Mixing Hgt.: 2000 m MSL.

Tomorrow's Forecast

June 24, 1999:

Shortwave moves through west TN and into middle TN by afternoon, with rain and scattered thunderstorms continuing on Thursday morning. Rain may taper off by afternoon as shortwave moves to the east, but winds will still be gusty as 850 mb low moves to our north, with 850 mb winds WNW around 15 to 20 kts. High: 84 Low: 71

Day after Tomorrow Forecast

June 25, 1999:

AVN/MRF close off 500 mb low over the area, but we feel ETA solution of moving it on out of here looks more accurate. However, in either event, moisture will stay high, and with unstable air, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms. High:87 Low: 72

Outlook

June 26 - 28, 1999:

Best chance for scattered thunderstorms will be on Saturday, with decreasing chances Sunday and Monday most likely. Highs: near 88. Lows: near 70.

Profiler Plume Depiction

The following shows a depiction of plume locations as predicted by the profiler winds assimilated into a one-dimensional boundary layer model. The top image shows particle positions as of the previous evening. The lower image shows particle positions as of the following morning for particles released beginning the previous noon.

Forecast Plumes

The following gives a depiction of plume locations using a Lagranagian Particle Model coupled to the Regional Spectral Model. The RSM is run daily in a forecast mode at TVA Muscle Shoals, Alabama.

Plume based on 00z initial fields (mpg file optimized for QuickTime)

Plume based on 12z initial fields (mpg file optimized for QuickTime)

ARL Hysplit Trajectories

Nashville Soundings